john, stay with us. want to bring our analyst, nonpartisans, david bergen, gloria borger, candy crowley is with us, paul begala and cornel belcher. ari, you were talking about early voting. >> yeah. the best way to know who's going to win is the enthusiasm. no question that's what we have to measure on tuesday night. it's down for the president. the question is how much. let's go to ohio. mitt romney has got 100,000 more early votes than john mccain did at this point. president obama has 150,000 fewer votes than he did at this point four years ago. that's a net 250,000 pickup for romney in a state that the president won by 260,000 votes. florida. 270,000 change in the direction of romney and the republicans because of the increase for romney over mccain, decrease for obama in early voting. 270,000 change in a state that obama won by 236,000. this is what it comes down to. this is why it is so real that there's a path to 270 for mitt romney. it's because of that decline in enthusiasm compared to four year